29. Winners and Losers in the recent Indo-Pak tussle: Pulwama attack and the Abhinandan episode

As many as 49 Indian paramilitary soldiers were killed in Pulawama attack on February 14, 2019. The Jaish e Muhammad, having roots in Pakistan, claimed responsibility for the attack. As a matter of fact, the attacker was a Kashmiri boy, Adil Ahmad Dar,  who was humiliated by the Indian security forces multiple times before joining hands with the freedom fighters in Kashmir.  Although it was a failure on part of the Indian government, the military forces and the intelligence agencies, Indian PM Narendra Modi was clever enough to divert the attention of people away from his government’s policy failure in Kashmir. He wasted no time in blaming Pakistan for the attack without any proof or evidence and vowed to avenge the “blood of soldiers”. He assured his people that “time for negotiations had passed”.  And Indian media came into play as it had the best opportunity to whip up sentiments of the people in India against Pakistan and push for a “war” with Pakistan unmindful of the fact that Pakistan would resort to nuclear weapons against India in the event of a war. You know what they say,” Nobody wins in a nuclear war”. And in hindsight, they (Indian media houses) were impeccable in their assignment of creating a war hysteria in the country. Those were the bleak times. It appeared as if India were a country of more than 1 billion war-mongers: not even a single person had the courage to talk sense. On the other hand, the entire coterie of Pakistani leadership was busy in making arrangements for the visit of Saudi crown prince, Mohammad Bin Salman, who was expected to announce a huge investment package for Pakistan. Therefore, Prime minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan could not instantly respond to the Indian allegations and clarify the position of Pakistan, albeit the foreign minister of Pakistan had already condemned the attack in strongest worlds and refuted Indian allegations as “baseless and unfounded”. 

Indian pm Narendra Modi had no choice but teach Pakistan a lesson. After five days, Prime minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan responded to India, showing his statesmanship, he condemned the attack and offered to conduct an inquiry into the attack provided India shared “actionable intelligence” with Pakistan. And he reiterated the long-standing stance of Pakistan that dialogue was the only viable option to resolve all outstanding issues between the two countries. However, he warned India against aggressive designs and pledged that Pakistan would retaliate in the event of Indian aggression against it. As ill-luck would have it, Indian strategists committed a big blunder of miscalculation. They thought that Pakistan would never retaliate to an Indian offensive. The plan was to placate the charged Indian public through a hasty incursion into Pakistani territory. In that way, both the Indian military and the government might have been able to salvage themselves in the volatile environment. On February 26, in darkness of night, the Indian fighter planes entered Pakistani airspace for about 4 minutes and hastily dropped payload on the mountains of Balakot region of Pakistan after Pakistani fighter jets chased them. As many as 10 trees were uprooted altogether in the “airstrike”. To everyone’s dismay, an innocent crow was also found dead under a tree on the very next day. Indian media and the government declared “victory” and claimed to have killed 300 “terrorists” in the airstrike. Everybody was so jubilant in India after Pakistan was taught a lesson.

Now what? Well, Pakistan was bound to retaliate not because India had brutally wiped out 10 trees and a crow but to avenge the violation of its airspace. Had Pakistan not retaliated, it would have emboldened India to launch such strikes in future. Pakistan did not want to allow India to set a new normal: military offensive against Pakistan in the event of a terror incident in India.  True to its pledge, on Feb 27, Pakistan demonstrated its capability by engaging six targets in India through fighter jets. After successfully hitting non-military targets in India, Pakistani fighter jets downed 2 Indian fighter aircrafts---Mig 21 and Su-31--- and captured one Indian pilot, named Abhinadan. The equation between the two countries changed abruptly in favor of Pakistan after the retaliation. The response from Pakistan was surprising for India as they had never imagined Pakistan retaliating back to an Indian offensive. Later, Imran Khan was bold enough to defuse the situation by ordering Abhinandan’s release on the very next day of his capture. The entire world lauded Imran Khan for the brave decision at such a critical juncture. Although the possibility of another conflagration cannot be ruled out, there is a marked improvement in situation.  

Abhinandan, the captured pilot

(To watch video of captured pilot, open the link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhwomgC8QTo)
(Abhinandan narrated his experience in Pakistan in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYjuqaAl0WU)

Winners

1.       Militaries of both the countries

There are talks of increasing military budgets in both the countries despite the fact that millions of people in the region do not have access to food, shelter and other basic amenities. Before the standoff, the "militaries" were reluctant to push for increase in defense budgets. As of now, even poor people in the two countries are advocating for the spike in defense budgets. Indians want their army to buy more Dassault Rafale and Pakistanis are no different. The economy of Pakistan is crippled but the defense budget of the country is going to increase manifolds ($11B in 2018-19 to $16B in 2019-20). So one can say that the military standoff proved to be a blessing in disguise for the armies. Shouldn’t common people see the bigger picture and push for peace initiatives instead of war-mongering?

2.       Indian pm Narendra Modi

PM Modi came to power in 2014 on account of his anti-Pakistan rhetoric. Of course follies of Congress was also one of the reason behind his elevation to the highest office, but the Pakistan always remained epicenter of his politics. Given the Lok Sabha elections were a few months away, the Pulwama-like situation was the best opportunity for PM Modi to divert peoples’ attention away from the real issues like unemployment, poverty alleviation, miseries of farmers, and efficacy of Kashmir policy. And the Indian media was used as cat’s paw by the Indian government to create war hysteria and anti-Pakistan sentiment. And in hindsight, the policy of Modi worked really well and might help him win the upcoming elections.

3.       International Arm sellers: US, Russia, China, France, Germany, Israel

      A conflict is an ideal situation for international arm-sellers to reap enormous benefits. One wonders why the super powers like US, China and Russia do not play their role in resolving issues between India and Pakistan. Obviously, they regularly pay lip service but are never interested in resolution of disputes. As a matter of fact, resolution of issues between countries is always followed by peace, tranquility, cooperation and prosperity. If Pakistan and India became friends who would buy their weapons? After the recent conflict, India will buy weapons from US, France and probably Israel. And what about Pakistan? China is always there to help Pakistan in the hour of need.

4.       China

As has already been mentioned that Pakistan will be buying more weapons from China to fend off Indian threat, there is another riddle here. China and India do not like each other. In 2017, the Doklam stand-off between the two countries was just one manifestation of hostility towards each other. Somehow, India had managed to humiliate China in the conflict. Many people were of the view, in the recent clash, China used Pakistan to avenge the humiliation of Doklam. Well, that might not be true. But it is not difficult to visualize that China can use Pakistan to threaten India in future.

5.       War-mongers

War-mongers in India and Pakistan always spurn efforts for peace between the two countries. Hatred and hostility is what they work for. They strive hard to create tensions between the two countries and strain every nerve to sabotage attempts at peace and friendship. Hostile environment keeps them in headlines. Therefore, the recent deterioration in ties between the two countries is an ideal situation for war-mongers to propagate their views without any fear of being questioned or opposed.

Losers

1.       Common people of both the countries

 Poor people of the two countries are the major losers in the confrontation. Cooperation, trade and   joint ventures always benefit and improve lives of the destitute of this region.  With India and   Pakistan boycotting each other at every front, livelihood of many impoverished families will be   snatched away.

2.       Hapless Kashmiris

Secondly, hapless Kashmiris are going to bear the brunt of cross-border shelling, discrimination in India in all walks of life, emergencies and internet ban, above all, the wrath of the vindictive Indian security forces in the after math of worsening Indo-Pak ties. The Indian government has already embarked upon the journey of its heavy-handedness in Kashmir by outlawing many political parties, arresting innocent people and boosting number of security forces in the embattled region.   

3.       Doves of India and Pakistan

      The worsening of ties was a blow to all the people in both the countries who made tireless efforts to bridge differences and promote harmony among the people of two countries. In the wake of recent tumultuous episode, they will have to start the constructive work from the scratch again.

4.       Artists

Arts, sports and cultural activities ought to be free of politics across the world. But in case of India and Pakistan, everything is subservient to politics and politicians. Indian artists cannot take part in cultural activities in Pakistan and vice versa in the wake of Pulwama attack.