Nontraditional Security Threats to Pakistan

What is a non-traditional Security Threat?

“NON-TRADITIONAL SECURITY (NTS) CHALLENGES ARE THREATS TO THE SURVIVAL AND WELL-BEING OF PEOPLES AND STATES THAT ARISE PRIMARILY OUT OF NON-MILITARY SOURCES SUCH AS CLIMATE CHANGE, INFECTIOUS DISEASES, NATURAL DISASTERS, IRREGULAR MIGRATION, FOOD AND WATER SHORTAGES AND OTHER FORMS OF TRANSNATIONAL CRIMES.”, DR. MELY CABALLERO-ANTHONY

Following are the threats: 

1. Climate change

Pakistan among the most vulnerable countries (ranked 7^th) to climate change. Hottest year 2017, Karachi’s temperature 53 degree centigrade, heat wave killed 1500 people, Smog in Lahore has paralyzed the lives. Thus endangering the lives of people in many ways.

•   In Pakistan, low-probability and high-impact events such as earthquakes, floods, droughts, storms and cyclones have been increasing in frequency, inflicting unbearable human and financial losses. The case in point being the earthquake of 2005 that caused approximately 0.1 million deaths, made 3.5 million people homeless and incurred $5.2 billion financial losses; and the floods of 2010 that wreaked havoc affecting 20 million people (ISSI)

·       Pakistan is the 7th most vulnerable nation to Climate Change Impacts according to Global Climate   Risk Index 2017. Since 1950, Pakistan has registered 24 floods with 12, 330 deaths and some            197,257 villages have been affected.

Mitigation measures

• .       Pakistan climate change bill 2017 has been passed to mitigate environmental threats
• .       National climate change policy 2012.
• .       The federal ministry of climate change has recently developed the ‘Framework for Implementing the Climate Change Policy (2015-2030).
• .       Incorporation of SDG’s in Vision 2025;  outlay of 815 million in budget 2017-18
• .       Green Pakistan program by PM (2016) , 100 million trees in the country

2. Burgeoning population

According to the last census (2017), Population of Pakistan reached 207 million at growth rate of 2.4.

It is expected to reach 400 million by 2035 at current growth rate. It will be a burden on limited resources. It will be extremely difficult for the country to ensure availability of food, shelter and other amenities. Poor people would be exposed to the external threats. We were ranked lowest in contraceptive usage (35 %) in south Asia while highest in fertility rate (3.8 per woman).

·         Population growth creates and exacerbates vulnerabilities by endangering basic civic amenities, leading to scarcity of food, clean water, space for housing and infrastructure, unbridled urbanization and ultimately burdening the state and the society.

Measures to be taken:

 After 18^th amendment, population control has become a provincial subject.

•          Family planning
•          Contraceptives
•          Women education
•  1        Ban child marriage ( limit 18)
•          Employment generation
•  1        Poverty alleviation
•          Legal instruments like the one that China used—one child policy

3. Water shortage

According ADB, Pakistan is the most water stressed country. Water supply has been on decline since independence. Poor water management coupled with the threat posed by climate change has exacerbated the water woes of Pakistan. Per capita water share has shrunken from 5000 m3/capita in 1947 to 1000 m3 in 2016. Life is impossible without water. Moreover water shortage would be a blow to national integration as provinces already harbor hostile feelings. Despite having the world's largest glaciers, Pakistan is among the world's 36 most water-stressed countries

•          Pakistan's Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) has warned that unless timely measures are taken, the country will run out of water by 2025.
•          When it comes to sustainable consumption pattern, other countries produce 1$ of GDP by consuming 128 liters of water. In Pakistan, to produce 1$ of GDP, 1070 liters of water is used. (ISSI)

·          

Measures to be taken

•          More dams to enhance storage capacity as it is dwindling (30 days) due siltation in the dams
•          Water efficiency and water conservation to mitigate the losses caused by unscrupulous use.
•          Measures to reduce pollution which necessitates water shortage.
•          Efficient farming techniques i.e. drip irrigation, crops which consume less water

4.       Food Shortage---

•           Right to food has been recognized as a core element of standard of living in the 1948 Universal  Declaration of Human Rights
•          Article 38 (d) of the constitution of Pakistan also recognized the right to food as a basic right.
•         Global Hunger Index 2017, Pakistan ranks 106th out of 119 qualifying countries with a score of     32.6, its status is ‘serious’ (bordering on ‘alarming’).
•          Global Food Security Index 2017: Pakistan ranks 77th out of 113.
•          FAO: 37.5 million people in Pakistan still do not receive proper nutrition.
•          Pakistan has the fifth highest rate of stunting in the world (44%)

d   Moreover, it is being realized the twin menaces of climate change and water scarcity will adversely impact the food the cycle of Pakistan. An increasing number of people are becoming vulnerable to the problem of food insecurity. The rapid increase in the population will exacerbate the crisis.

        

       Measures to be taken

•                Investment in agriculture sector 
•                Green Farming 
•                Reduce food wastage
•                Population Control  
•                Incentives to farmer for producing food crops
•                Check on food exports   

 

 5. Cyber threats

THE FIRST SIX months of 2017 have seen an inordinate number of cybersecurity meltdowns. Ransomware encrypted data on at least 75,000 computers in 99 countries in May 2017. Payments were demanded for access to be restored. European countries, including Russia, were among the worst hit. Propaganda on social media; blasphemous content; hate speech. Attacks by Indian hackers on official websites.

·         Cyber security apparatus must be stepped up.

·         Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act 2016; albeit for political witch-hunting.

6. Role of Non-state actors:

  1.

·         Afghanistan war—Good Taliban; bad Taliban

·         Kashmir Policy—JeM; LeT ; LeJ

·         TTP; FATA

·         Jundullah, Jaishe Adl- Iran

 2. NGO’s

·         Save the children story; Shakil Afridi Nexus

·         Nisar Told, sometimes the entire organizations found involved in activities that endangered the national interest

·         Over 1,000 'hostile' spies visited Pakistan under the guise/garb of INGO

Effects:

·         Usama episode tarnished the Image

·         CPEC and non-state actors

·         Economic losses touched the mark $118 billion in counter terrorism operations

·         More than 60,000 civilian and nearly 7000 security personnel lost lives

·         Pakistan was declared a terror-sponsoring nations and resulting isolations

·         FDI shrank as a result of deteriorating security situation

·         Social fabric erosion; Educations institution were closed, psychologically torture

·         Civil-Military relations reached the lowest ebb

Measures to put the genie into the bottle

•          NGO registration regime was tightened
•          Military operations  

a. Operation Al-Mizan (2002-2006) FATA—1200 personnel lost

b. Operation Rah e Haq 2007—Swat against TTP+TNSM

c. Operation sher e dil (2008-09)—Bajaur agency

d. Operation Zalzala ( Jan 2008)—In south Wazirstan agency againt Baitullah 

e. Operation Sirat-e-Mustaqeem (2008)--- In Bara, Khyber agency FATA.

f. Operation Rah e Rast ( May 2009)---Mingora, Swat

g. Operations Rah e Nijaat (Oct 2009)—Launched in South Wazirstan

h. Operations Koh-e-Sufaid (July 2011)—Kurram agency

i. Zarb e azb after APS (2014 )--- North Wazirstan

J. Operation Radd ul Fasaad ( Feb 2017)---Countrywide

•         NAP , CTD and NACTA were established to streamline institutional response
•          Ban on speakers, hate speech is a sin.