10. Kashmir Issue and its adverse effects on South Asia

                                            ‘The oldest dispute on UN agenda’

Introduction:

Since the partition in 1947, Kashmir has been a bone of contention between Pakistan and India. They have fought three wars (1948, 1965, 1999) so far over the disputed territory. The issue was referred to the United Nations in Jan, 1948 and both countries had agreed to accept the solution proposed by the United Nations.  After prolonged deliberations, it was decided by the UN (Resolution 47, 13 August, 1948) that a "free and fair" plebiscite would be conducted to determine the will of people---whether to accede to India or Pakistan. Then Indian Prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru pledged to abide by the UN ruling and take immediate measures to conduct a "free and fair"  plebiscite. However, as  Arundhati Roy in her book ‘Kashmir: the case for freedom’ articulated that "Pundit Nehru who referred the case to UN and accepted it as a mediator; later backtracked from his pledge of plebiscite on absurd pretext that Pakistan had joined the defense pacts which alters the political reality of this region". Till date, the issue is unresolved. As a matter of fact, both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers. There is always a  looming threat of a nuclear war between the two countries. Therefore, it is imperative that international and regional stakeholders make endeavors to find an amicable solution to the dispute to make South Asia peaceful and prosperous.

Brief History:

⦁Kashmir remained an independent state until 19th century. 

⦁British occupied it in 1846 and  soon after sold it to Gulab Singh for 7.5 million under treaty of Amritsar. It remained under Dogra Rule till 1947. Hari Singh was the last ruler (1925-49) of Kashmir.

⦁When Britain, in 1947,  had decided to divide the Subcontinent into two independent states--India and Pakistan,  the Independent states ( 562 at that time) were given freedom to choose between India and Pakistan. Before making a final decision, the states had to take into account the composition of population, geographical proximity and the will of people. 

⦁At the time of partition, around 80% inhabitants of Kashmir were Muslims and less than 20% were Hindus. And geographically, Kashmir was linked to Pakistan. As per the rule applied to the accession of Hyderabad and Junagadh (became part of India), where Hindu population was in majority but rulers of the states were Muslims; Kashmir should have become part of Pakistan on account of geographical proximity and Muslim majority, but that did not happen.

⦁People of Kashmir wanted to accede to Pakistan but MahaRaja Hari Singh wanted an Independent state of Kashmir. He neither wanted to accede to Pakistan nor India. People started agitation to force him to accede to Pakistan. He employed coercive means to put down the uprising. But he failed to bring situation under control.  

⦁Interestingly, many people in Kashmir had their relatives residing in the then North West Frontier Province (NWFP), Pakistan. When they (people of NWFP) saw their relatives being tortured in Kashmir, they decided to put an end to their predicament by invading Kashmir.

⦁Pakhtoon tribesmen from Pakistan under Khurshid Anwar attacked Kashmir on October 22, 1947. Meanwhile, Hari Singh turned to India for military assistance in order to restore peace in the region. 

⦁The Indian authorities had put an immense pressure on Hari Singh to accede to India but he refused to do so. However, on October 26, 1947, the then Indian government claimed that the ruler of Kashmir had signed the document to accede to India. 

⦁Soon afterwards, Indian troops were airlifted to Kashmir and much of region was occupied by them. Witnessing such a brazen act of aggression, Pakistan had also dispatched a small number of troops to Kashmir to halt the Indian offensive. Hostilities continued till January 1948 (the case was referred to the UN). Until the UN intervention in 1948, India had occupied 64% of the total area and Pakistan had seized the remaining territory. 

⦁A ceasefire was signed on January 1, 1949. And Kashmir was formally integrated in  India in 1957.The Article 370 of the Indian constitution ensured that No Indian could purchase property in Kashmir.

⦁The people of Kashmir never accepted the Indian rule and waged limited insurgency against it. The pro-Independence movement in Kashmir gained momentum in 1989 after the government of Indira Ghandi failed to install a puppet government in Kashmir. According to different reports, over the period between 1989 and 2010,  more than 100,000 Kashmiris were killed by the Indian forces. 

⦁As of now, the killing of freedom fighter, Burhan Wani, in May 2016, had triggered a wave of protests in Kashmir, which is still underway. Hundreds of people have been killed and scores of people have been blinded.  According to  reports by various Human rights organizations, more than 400 people have been partially or fully blinded. And thousands have been injured. In addition to that more than 100 have been killed. From 1989-2010, more than 100, 000 have been killed. The UN Human Rights Council had raised concerns about the flagrant human rights violations in India and asked the Indian authorities to facilitate an international probe into the grave situation. But the request has been turned down.

⦁Indian government had recently appointed former Intelligence Bureau chief Dineshwar Sharma as interlocutor take every stake-holder on board in Kashmir. ‘All party hurriyat conference’  turned down the offer of talks on the pretext that Pakistan must be included in the negotiations as a party. Hence, again hopes for any breakthrough dashed after a short-while. 

United Nations and Kashmir Issue

⦁India referred the case to UN on Jan 1, 1948,  thus it accepted UN as mediator.

⦁Resolutions 38 , 39  on January 17, 20, 1948  respectively has set up a commission and directed the then governments of India and Pakistan to create  conducive environment i.e. troops removal etc. for the plebiscite.

⦁UN resolution 47 ( 13 August, 1948) reads  

"Noting with satisfaction both India and Pakistan desire the question of accession of Jammu and Kashmir to India or Pakistan should be decided through a democratic method of free and impartial plebiscite"

⦁UN resolution 51 (3, Jun 1948)---Urged the Commission to expedite the process.

⦁Subsequent resolutions 80 (1950), 91 (1951), 96 (1951), 98 (1952), 122 (1957), 123 (1957), 126 (1957) reinforced the previous resolutions that asked for plebiscite.

⦁On Jan 1, 1949, the  UN facilitated the ceasefire along LOC (1972)

⦁Since then, the UN kept mum on the issue and failed to implement its own resolutions. As of now, it only raises 'concerns' over grave human rights violation in Kashmir.

Why the issue must be resolved?

⦁Nuclear neighbors--- Both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers. A nuclear war has the potential to reduce everything to debris in the region and beyond. Both the countries have already fought four deadly wars. Kashmir is the bone of contention between the two countries, therefore, its redress will be instrumental for regional peace.

⦁Regional cooperation in the light of CPEC, SAARC--- South Asia is among impoverished regions of the world. Part of the reason behind that is there is little cooperation among the South Asian countries on economic, social and cultural fronts as confirms a report by the World Trade Organization by revealing that volume of mutual trade among South Asian countries is only 5%, which is the lowest in the world. South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has already been rendered dysfunctional due to hostility between India and Pakistan. With China-Pakistan Economic Corridor set to become operational, it is imperative that all the countries in the region benefit from the project, which is aimed at bolstering cooperation among countries.

⦁Cooperation to defeat terrorism---  Every South Asian country has borne the brunt of terrorism. Pakistan and Afghanistan have suffered irreparable damages due to the menace of terrorism. India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka too have remained vulnerable to terrorism. Peace and serenity, which is vital for progress, evaded South Asia for a longer period of time. Terrorists exploit the lack of coordination and cooperation among the countries. Experts in the region agree that “there is a growing realization throughout the world that trans-border terrorism and organized crime cannot be controlled without bilateral or regional cooperation.” . In 1995,  SAARC had adopted a Regional Convention on the Suppression of Terrorism to boost coordination among countries to defeat terrorism. But strained ties between India and Pakistan over Kashmir Issue thwarted the possibility of cooperation.

⦁Poverty alleviation in the region--- South Asia is the poorest region in the world. Economic cooperation among the South Asian countries is minimal at best.A recent report the World Bank reveals that South Asia houses 30% of the world’s poor.. People lack access to basic amenities of life such as food, shelter and clothing.  Without cooperation, poor of the region cannot be lifted out of poverty. 

%age share of South Asian countries in poverty

⦁Climate change and water issues can be resolved--- The International Panel on Climate Change placed South Asia on the top of  the list of regions vulnerable to the threat posed by Climate Change. "Flooding, food shortages, and stagnating economic growth are just some of the devastating impacts South Asia may experience due to advancing climate change", according to the United Nations. We have recently witnessed deadly floods in India, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and the ensuing colossal damages. Similarly, drought has adversely affected the agriculture sector in Pakistan and caused food shortage in the country. So it is the need of the hour that all the countries in the region work out a joint strategy to weather the storm together.  Another perennial issue that the South Asian region confronted is disputes over water-sharing mechanism. Water-disputes exist among all the South Asian states. The basic reason behind conflicts is that the countries share water of the same sources-- the Indus, the Ganga and Brahamputra-Mehgna. Owing to hostile atmosphere of the region, a regional-solution to the water problems remained elusive.

Positions of World powers on the issue

India declares Kashmir as an integral part. However,  contrary to its wishes, the UN, the US, Russia, UK, France, China, Germany and Canada consider Kashmir a disputed region between India and Pakistan and have repeatedly called for its resolution for the greater good of the region.

Towards Solution:

    Following solution possibilities were discussed from time to time for the resolution of Kashmir issue

⦁  The declaration of Kashmir as a buffer state between India and Pakistan. Independent state would be instrumental in defusing tensions in the region.

⦁  Holding of plebiscite according to the UN resolutions.

⦁   Granting Jammu valley to India and Kashmir to Pakistan to settle differences.

⦁  Withdrawal of all the forces on both sides of the border in Kashmir and place it under UN suzerainty .

⦁  International recognition of Line Control as border between India and Pakistan.

⦁   President Musharraf had gone extra miles in 2006 to find an amicable solution to this lingering problem when he charted out a four-step formula. He compromised Pakistan’s traditional position on the issue.

 a) Gradual demilitarization 

 b)Self-governance for Kashmiris just short of independence 

 c)Free movement for Kashmiris across the border

 d)Joint Mechanism to implement above suggestions 

⦁   Another solution was put forward which asked for creation of independent free economic zone where both India and Pakistan could trade. It also had asked for dignified withdrawal of both armies. 

However, as UN Resolution 1514, 1960 reads-- ‘without dissenting votes, all peoples have the right to self-determination’, the People of Kashmir should be given their fundamental right of self-determination as were given the people of following states 

⦁ New Caledonia was given the choice in November, 2018 referendum: either to remain under French control or become independent

⦁ Similarly a referendum was conducted in Scotland in 2014 to determine whether people want to stay with the United Kingdom or desirous of an  independent state of Scotland.

⦁ South Sudan  became independent in 2011

⦁ Kosovo got independence in 2008 from Serbia

⦁ Democratic Republic of Congo became a separate independent state in  2007

⦁ In 1999, following the United Nations-sponsored act of self-determination, Indonesia relinquished control of the territory. East Timor became the first new sovereign state of the 21st century on 20 May 2002.

⦁ UN secured democratic elections in Haiti ,Cambodia and Salvador in 1990, 1993 and 1994 respectively. 

Why the same "privilege" cannot be granted to the hapless Kashmiris? Both India and Pakistan need to engage in a constructive dialogue to pave ways for a "free and fair"  plebiscite in Kashmir under the aegis of the United Nations to determine the will of people. The region cannot afford any further delay. 

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