20. Five major nontraditional security threats to Pakistan

1. Climate change

Pakistan was included among the most vulnerable countries (ranked 7th) to climate change, by the International Panel on Climate Change. Back in 2015, a heat wave in Karachi claimed more than 1500 lives. Pakistan has been repeatedly hit by long spells of drought, which adversely affects its agriculture sector. More worrisome is the rapidly decreasing per capita availability of water in the country. According to reports, per capita water availability has shrunk from 5000M3 in 1951 to 800M3 in 2018 and it will decrease further. Other vulnerable sectors are energy-related infrastructure, health, employment, food cycle and economy. Given the rapid increase in population, Pakistan will not be able to feed and protect its people. When people do not get enough to eat, it will be easy for the enemies of the country to exploit them. As multiple reports suggest: there is a direct link between poverty and terrorism. It is not difficult to contemplate that if do not take timely measures, the day is not far when chaos and anarchy will be rampant in the country. It is unfortunate that the people at the helm of power have turned a blind eye to the grave issue of Climate Change and have repeatedly downplayed the threat.

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Measures to be taken to combat the threat

• The focus should be on constructing more resilient infrastructure to withstand extreme environmental patterns: floods, rains, droughts, snow-falling, long spells of heatwaves 
• Farmers should rely on resilient and heat-tolerant crops to sustain production of food during the long and hot summers. The year 2018 has been declared the hottest in history. 
• It is the need of the hour that we construct more dams and water reservoirs to boost our water storage capacity as glaciers are melting at a much faster pace and according to a UN report, Himalayas Glaciers will disappear by the end of the century. It is better to fix the roof while the sun shines.  
• More and more trees need to be planted across the country to lower the temperature during hot summers. As a matter of fact, trees absorb carbon dioxide, which is the main driver of climate change.
• For a long-term solution , we need to work on how to shift from non-renewable resources to renewable resources to fulfill our energy needs. Our strategy should be to gradually incorporate renewable sources of energy in our energy matrix. It is heartening to witness increasing number of solar and wind energy plants across the country. 

2. Burgeoning population

According to the last census (2017), Population of Pakistan reached 207 million at the annual growth rate of 2.4%. It is expected to reach 400 million by 2035 at the current growth rate. It will be a burden on limited resources. It will be extremely difficult for the country to ensure availability of food, shelter and other amenities to the people. Poor people would be exposed to the external threats as well internal threats. Pakistan was ranked the lowest in contraceptive usage (35 %) in south Asia with the highest in fertility rate (3.8 per woman). According to a report by the ADP, there are nearly 50 million people in Pakistan who fall below the International poverty line. And to its people's dismay, Pakistan will run dry by 2025 and has already been declared a water-stressed country. Unemployment rate stands at 6%, the economy has failed to absorb the swelling number of 'Youth bulge', illiteracy is rife, the condition of health infrastructure is dismal and the ballooning number of homeless people in the country just paint a bleak picture. All these deprivations are a recipe for a disaster for the country. The disgruntled and disillusioned young generation are increasingly gravitating towards extremism and fanaticism thus multiplying the woes of the embattled county. It is the need of the hour that the ruling class make concerted efforts to arrest rapid growth in the population to stave off an impending disaster.

Measures to be taken to deal with the threat

After 18th amendment, population control has become a provincial subject. A few days ago, Chief Justice, Saqib Nisar, held a symposium on the issue of rapid growth in population. Following measures were recommended to check the growth.

• Family planning 
• Increasing awareness about the use of contraceptives
• Women education is just too important in this regard. A study proves that educated women tend to  have less number children.
• Child marriage should be banned in the country. Currently, a girl can marry at the age of 14 in Pakistan
•   Minimum age for marriage should be 18, in that way, time period for fertility is reduced and a woman becomes mature enough to contemplate the consequences of more children.
• Employment generation may also prove instrumental to curb rapid growth in population.
•  It has been observed that poor people have more children. It is partly because they do not have jobs and spend more time with their wives. Another dynamic is that they cannot afford costly entertainment sources like watching a movies at cinemas; going on a trip; visiting fancy hotels or other historical places. Therefore, the only cheap source of entertainment is intercourse with  their partners.
• Governments can employ legal instruments to effect change in this regard. One can take a leaf out  of China's book which had introduced  the "One Child" policy to check unprecedented growth in  population.  

3. Water shortage 

According ADB, Pakistan is the most water stressed country. Water supply has been on decline since the independence. Poor water management coupled with the threat posed by Climate Change has exacerbated the water woes of Pakistan. Per capita water share has shrunken from 5000 m3/capita in 1947 to 1000 m3 in 2016. Life is impossible without water. Moreover water shortage would be a blow to national integration as provinces already harbored hostile feelings against each other. The agriculture sector still contributes 20% to the national GDP; employs 44% people and supplies raw material for our major export item: textile. As a matter of fact, water is the only lifeline of our agriculture sector. With reduced supply of water, agriculture sector cannot keep pace with increasing food needs on account of burgeoning population of the country. Presently, the water storage capacity can sustain supply for 30 days, unlike India and Egypt, which have storage capacity to sustain for more than 200 days. The scarcity of water has become a major security threat to Pakistan as the provinces have started accusing each other of water theft. The more the shortage of water, the weaker the cohesiveness in the country.

Following measures may come handy to address the issue

• There is a need to construct more dams to boost the country's storage capacity.
• Water efficiency and water conservation measures should be adopted to mitigate the losses         caused by unscrupulous use and obsolete irrigation system.
• Measures should be taken to reduce water pollution, which necessitates water shortage.
• Efficient farming techniques i.e. drip irrigation, plant crops which consume less water.
• The outdated irrigation system needs to be upgraded to reduce losses due to seepage. 

4. Cyber threats

Over the last decade, cyber threat has emerged as one of the biggest threat to the security of Pakistan.
Multiple important websites of Pakistani officials and departments were hacked by the hackers of enemy countries to steal classified information. According to some privy sources, many attempts have been made by hostile elements to penetrate the nuclear program of Pakistan. Hostile actors use social media websites to spread lies and propaganda about the security forces of Pakistan. Last month, a cyber attack was launched to steal information of account holders in multiple Pakistani banks. Millions of rupees were stolen. It is high time that we improve security of our cyberspace to avert any major debacle perpetrated by our enemies.

 Measures to be taken in this regard

• Installation of highly efficient shield systems to repulse cyber attacks 
• Multiple locks to access a document pertaining to national security
• Time is ripe to establish a separate cyber security unit to monitor the whole cyberspace operating within Pakistan
• A research department can also be put in place to devise innovative strategies to deal with various kinds of cyber attacks.

5. Religious Extremism

 Religious extremism has been identified as another grave threat to the security of Pakistan. It precipitates the process of polarization and stratification thus weakens the social fabric. Mob lynchings over blasphemy accusations, protests, attacks on minorities, shutdowns and mob violence have become the order of the day in Pakistan. The rise of certain religious groups has endangered the security of Pakistan. During the last two months, the leadership of Tehrik-e-Labaik Pakistan (TLP) openly threatened the army chief, the chief justice and the prime minister for their alleged deviation from the Islamic Principles. One of the front-man of the party had urged junior army officers to revolt against their seniors. Such a brazen attack on the army of Pakistan is certainly a wake up call for the top-brass of the country. Moreover, religious fanatics deal a blow to the image of the country in the world. Recently, the United States has put Pakistan on the list of countries dangerous for religious freedom. Therefore, one can say that religious extremism is adversely affecting our relations with other countries.

Measures to be taken to eliminate the threat

• Registration of religious seminaries operating across Pakistan for better monitoring of their activities.
• Reforming Madressah syllabus is another important requirement to tame extremism. Science, Maths and general knowledge subjects should be integrated in the syllabus to equip students for the modern and fast-changing world.
• Stern action against those spreading hate material ought to be taken.  
• Elimination of poverty 
• A standard interpretation of Quranic verses and historical incidents pertaining to Islam should be issued by the state to put an end to practice of wrong interpretation of Quran and certain incidents to whip up public sentiments
• Ban on loudspeakers across the country.